I stopped following the Israel-Hamas war news long ago. This isn’t to turn a blind eye to one of the most horrific atrocities of our times, but because I can’t really do anything about it.
It’s unnecessary information (and stress) for my mind, like any other geopolitical news.
Lately, I’ve unsubscribed from all forms of news, even most business news.
However, that doesn’t mean living in an ivory tower. I prefer reflecting on and analyzing events after a week or month in the form of a summary — but not in real-time.
For instance, I am interested in knowing why Adobe called off $20 billion acquisition of Figma, but not immediately through their PR (which is mostly not true 😀)
Firstly, the news is not facts. It’s sensationalized and made way more important to the common man than it is.
Secondly, I’m trying to avoid any information that can’t impact my actions. Less information, more clarity.
Recently, I came to realize that a terror group named Houthi in Yemen attacked ships passing through the Suez Canal. The group seems to support Hamas and trying to harm ships associated with Israel. But, any ship passing through that route is now at risk, even if not linked to Israel.
This significantly affects the global economy, as no shipping companies want to travel that path now and risk their crew and goods. They plan to take a different route which is 2-3 weeks longer, hence more fuel and freight costs.
Now, this may not be important news for a common man, but is it important for a business? As it impacts their importing cost and they might have to reconsider the selling prices.
The answer, perhaps, is NO.
Firstly, they can’t predict future events and make pricing decisions solely based on predictions. If their costs rise, they will likely have to increase their prices regardless.
Morgan Housel says, “Every event creates its own repercussions, impacting the world in unique ways. This makes prediction exceedingly difficult. The complexity of past connections should humble your confidence in predicting future ones.”
Like, one little move can have an enormous shift in the outcome for the next 10 years. For instance, the US Navy interfering with the Suez Canal crisis seems to curb the issue, but might actually end up aggravating it.
The point is, you can’t predict and make real-time business decisions based on these uncertainties.
If it doesn’t affect a merchant directly impacted, how does it affect me, a common man?
Well, I might end up paying 10% more for my new running shoes due to increased import costs.
But do I have a choice?
Parth Choudhury 